There is nothing to be thankful that this topic had come into place. This topic has sprouted out of nowhere in the expense of our 6300 fellow Filipino brethren who died helplessly in various and pitiful ways that a human being does not deserve to suffer. The topic has sprouted in the expense of wailing mothers who lost not only one but all of her children. It sprouted in the expense of putting a civilization with a promising future in ruins. The destruction, devastation and the sorrow that our nation had and to others still have, are emanating reminders that despite our advancements in technology, we will never be able to outwit or outplay our mother nature. We will never have all the knowledge to see through what nature will next unleash. We are left here to do our best to only bask and accept the extent of the fury that mother nature can give to us. Deep within my heart, I was guilty for then I hoped for the storm, Typhoon Haiyan, to break records, just like what I did to Cyclone Sidr in 2008, and to Typhoon Durian in 2006, in the expense of those thousands of souls that are perturbing me and my conscience. That was why when the topic sprouted like a mushroom, I immediately took and swallow it even though it has a high risk of being poisonous, and even though it would be poisonous, I would be of no regret, if I can at least tell those bereaved, who are still confused on how strong Haiyan was in the middle of the discrepancies of the released weather bulletins around the globe, of how strong those winds really are. It will be like telling the mothers who lost sons on the war on what kind of death their sons suffered, for them to find inner peace on the why’s, just like me finding inner peace on this pursuit of knowledge. Ever since I was a child, a geeky child, I am always at awe on the strongest typhoon that I’ve known, Typhoon Tip of 1979. If Typhoon Haiyan really broke Typhoon Tip’s record, I wanted to be the first one to find out for it was still perturbing me because in the pursuit of knowledge facts should be straight. And in that pursuit of knowledge, I thank those who helped me in the way: to my parents who made the field survey possible, to the family of Marvin Castil who let me live in their residence for a while where I’ve sympathized on the current living conditions of those who were affected, to JB Cruzat who provided the transportation to the whole trip, to Marianito Macasa of PAGASA-Guiuan Station who helped me appreciate the brave efforts of those who went to the strongest winds just for us to be warned. The persons that I would like to thank the most were my advisers, Engr. William L. Mata, for constantly keeping a sharp eye on the flaws that my study would have, and Dr. Jaime Y. Hernandez, for always encouraging me and leading me out of dead ends. Next to them were some members of the ICE faculty, namely, Engr. Liezl Tan, for giving me the basics of ANSYS and also for lending her desktop computer for the simulations, Dr. Oscar Antonio Jr. for giving countless advises and lessons even though I was not his advisee, and to Engr. Romeo Longalong for constantly lightening up the mood at times of consultation and simulations.
I am also thanking Ms. Mary Myrtle B. Agulto, for the good times that we had. That mere thought that I might be able to see you again sustained me all those past five years. Even if we can’t meet again, you became an unknowable source of strength. Your memory has always been a warm comfort to me.
And finally, I would like to thank my parents, who sustained my education and this undergraduate research in the expense of their tears and blood, of their hand work. In the end, I thanked people anyway. I close my acknowledgements with a regard to late Spanish writer Gabriel Garcia Marquez, whose novel entitled Autumn of the Patriarch became the basis of the way that I am writing here. The theme that he employed there is like what I describe this storm that I studied, it’s magically real.
Joshua C. Agar
BS Civil Engineering
June 1, 2015
Typhoon Haiyan of 2013 was quickly hyped as one of the strongest tropical cyclones, yet there are existing discrepancies between the meteorological data produced by the weather agencies worldwide. In the absence of credible in-situ meteorological measurements that will reflect on the storm’s true strength, “Windicators” are analyzed. Windicator, coined from the terms wind and indicator, are existing simple structures of interest through failure analysis would directly reflect on wind speeds that brought the bending or even toppling, of the structure. The study includes an expansive field survey on affected areas, excluding inundated areas, in the Region VIII, where the storm made landfall at peak intensity. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is done to determine that winds that initiated the failure, either yielding or localized buckling. The direction of failure/deformation is taken into account in order to establish an estimated time of failure, which in turn directly reflects to the proximity of the storm at the time of the arrival of the winds that brought the structural failure. Using digital image correlation of the satellite images or the gradient wind equation from the approximation of pressure profile of the storm, the radial profile of the storm, before and during landfall is established, which then can be used to estimate the winds on the regions of expected maximum winds from the computed wind speed from the windicator. The study determines through analysis of five windicators, that Typhoon Haiyan has 1-minute sustained winds of 351 kph, 10-minute sustained winds of 290 kph, both estimated intensities before landfall at Leyte, and a minimum central pressure of 872.2 mbar, using Holland’s approximation and from the recorded pressure of 910 mbar from Guiuan Weather Station of PAGASA.